Saturday, September 1, 2012

Post Convention: Romney’s Image Improves Dramatically Among Crucial Independent and Persuadable Voters

Convention bump? While Romney and Obama are still locked in a dead heat among registered voters, Mitt Romney emerged from the Republican convention with an overall improvement in his image among voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday and Saturday. 
The four-day rolling poll has President Barack Obama leading Romney in general favorability, 52 percent to 50 percent. But the poll showed Romney steadily improving in likeability and other positive-image features.
Thirty-one percent of the registered voters responding to the survey found Romney “likeable” in Friday’s poll, up from Monday’s 26 percent. Obama enjoys a 48 percent likeability rating. In Saturday’s poll Romney continued to rise in the key category of likeability. Thirty-two percent  found him likeable, a one-point gain from Friday. Obama’s likeability lost one point to 47 percent.
Especially notable was Romney’s boost among independents, 45 percent of whom rated him favorably, compared with Thursday’s 34 percent. Twenty percent of independents found him likeable, up from Thursday’s 16 percent.
“The Republicans had the task at the convention of making their candidate more palatable, likeable to the American electorate,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark. “Our data suggests they have absolutely succeeded.”

Another indication for a post Convention bump is found in this poll: Two-thirds of those who watched Thursday night’s speeches at the Republican National Convention already had decided who they would vote for before anyone opened their mouth, but among the small but important group of persuadable speech watchers, there is 2:1 movement towards Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll of the state of Florida conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.
1,211 adults were interviewed statewide 08/31/12, after Romney, Florida’s Marco Rubio and Clint Eastwood spoke to the convention 08/30/12. Of the adults, 1,100 were registered to vote in Florida. Of the registered voters, 754 heard the convention speeches. Of the convention speech watchers:
* 66% did not change their mind.
* 16% switched from “undecided” to Romney.
* 6% switched from Obama to Romney.
* Adding those 2 together, that’s 22% who switched TO Romney.
* 10% switched from “undecided” to Obama.
* 2% switched from Romney to Obama.
* Adding those 2 together, that’s 12% who switched TO Obama.
* Comparing the 2 aggregate numbers: 22% switched TO Romney, 12% switched TO Obama.
Reaction to individual speeches broke along party lines:
79% of Republicans, compared to 35% of Democrats, said Romney’s speech helped his chances to be elected.
12% of Republicans, compared to 45% of Democrats, said Eastwood’s speech hurt Romney’s changes to be elected.

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