Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Don't Ask How Romney Can Win, Ask Why Romney Must Win

Over the course of the past few weeks, I have come across to debate many Republicans (Not those who're convinced in Obama's victory ever since) what Romney did wrong, what he has to do, and why he's poised to lose this election.

I am always an optimist. As a Republican in NYC, especially in Southern Brooklyn, I get no chance but to help underdog Republican candidates pull out a win or at the very least a respectful loss. So, Optimism is part of my drive and motivation in local politics. But, nevertheless am I a realist, who has learned the hard way of offering resounding predictions, only to hide or scrap out some unconvincing excuse. Thus, I advise many who approach me, not to jump the gun, predict or fall into depression mode, of assuming results before votes were counted or without taking in count various events or steps that could still determine the outcome in November.

There's no indication that any other candidate the republican primary voters may have picked would not have been scrutinized by the media or not get the unload barrage of attacks from the Obama campaign.  As a matter of fact, less than a year ago, many have predicted that under no circumstances will Romney  win the primaries, due to the Romneycare cloud. Romney managed at the end of the day to overcome 9 frontrunners, and tough (not necessary qualitative) opponents from the right, and actually win the Republican nomination, an electorate that is far more ideological and opinionated.

Since becoming the presumptive nominee in late April, there were no traditional national tracking polls, or accurate state-by-state polls that gave a comfortable or consistent lead to neither Obama nor Romney.

The reason the race remains as close, is not the millions of dollars that are poured in, in negative ads or the convention speeches. If something, either Romney should of had a substantial lead, given the state of the economy and the cash advantage, or Obama, as an incumbent, a more likeable candidate vs a boring, out of touch, flawless opponent.

The 2012 election is a reflection of the changing times. The new world of social media has overtaken the conversation, not only in terms of expressing opinion and carrying across a message, but also from the media's part. Reporters who are regularly guarded by their editors of publishers or TV anchors and hosts kept to the screening script, feel freely to interact on twitter, express their humble opinion, or get the word out ahead of time. This method has created confusion, and transparency for the good and the bad.

Many junkies and opinionated individuals have found their place in creating news, interacting with great minds, and having an effect on the general discussions or talk of the day. At the same time, candidates have found this as much harder to run organized and discreet campaigns, which has resulted in creating greater confusion and anxiety at the campaign headquarters, strategists and staffer scratching their heads during every speech, interview or appearance of their candidate.


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