Monday, June 11, 2012

Poll: Bob Turner Readies Run against Gillibrand as GOP Favorite

New York --With two weeks to go before the state’s Republican senatorial primary, 70 percent of registered Republican voters have not decided who they’re voting for, a New Siena research poll released this morning finds.

Bob Turner leads the field among those expressing their support for either one of the candidates, with 16%.

"The Republicans we spoke with and who are reported here represent the universe of registered Republicans in New York (201 Republicans overall in the sample MOE +6.9%), not the small fraction of whom are likely to vote in two weeks," Siena's pollster, Steve Greenberg told me this morning. "But it is clear that most NY Republicans don’t know much, if anything, about any of the three candidates. Among only Republicans, Long’s favorability rating is 10-8, Maragos is 6-9 and Turner is 18-12," he added.

In a press release, Congressman Bob Turner's campaign expressed satisfaction with the poll results. "We're very pleased with the results of today's Siena College poll that continues to show Congressman Turner as the favored candidate to win the Republican Primary," Jessica Proud, Turner's campaign spokeswoman wrote. "The more voters hear about Bob Turner's business experience and record in cutting spending, lowering taxes and creating jobs, the stronger his support becomes," she added. 

One of the key components in the poll is the slowly but increasing support Turner is ramping up as he readies to take on Senator Gillibrand. As the Turner campaign points out in the press release, "Rep. Turner is consistently gaining support among key constituencies, including women, Conservatives, Jewish and young voters." 

According to Siena research, among Jewish voters, Gillibrand is still in the lead with 62%, down from 69% in May, compared to Turner's 25%, a 5 point increase since May. These numbers are slightly similar to the 65-35 lead David Weprin had in the first Siena poll at the start of the NY-9 congressional race, which resulted in a stunning victory for Turner. Carrying around 50% of the Jewish vote, and a whopping 91/9 among Brooklyn/Queens religious Jews, according to the exit poll data.

In NYC, in what Turner refers to by relying victory on the Pataki strategy, which is getting around 35% in the city. Gillibrand leads Turner by 69 percent to 21 percent (up from 18 in May), while 10 percent remain undecided. Turner also gained 15 points among young voters (ages 18-34), in one month.

More poll data from Siena's June 3-6 poll:

-Turner's favorable number's among general public has increased from 12% to 16%
-Favorability among Republicans: Turner 18/12, Long 6/9, Maragos 10/8
-Among Jewish voters Turner clear favorable: Turner 29/16, Long 4/9, Maragos 6/8

Turner increases  Republican support, and in clear lead among all groups in the June 26th GOP Primary
Turner 16%, Long 11%, Maragos 3%, Don't know 70%. (last Month: Turner 15, Long 12, Maragos 6)
-In NYC: Turner 44 (in May 38), Long 3 (in May 10), Maragos 4 (in may 0).
-Among conservatives: Turner 23 (in May 15), Long 11 (in May 10), Maragos 3 (in May 9).
-Among women Turner 15 (up from 9 in May) , Long 8 (DOWN from 18 in may), Maragos 2 (7 in May)
-Among ages 18-34: Turner 25 (up from 17 in May), Long 17 (down from 27 in may), Maragos 3 (5 in May)
-Among Jewish Voters: Turner 19 (up from 16 in May), Long 16, Maragos 5 (up from 0 in May)

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